The Eurozone Economic “Surprise” Index has Outperformed Its American Counterpart So Far In 2021

What Are The Consequences And Will It Continue?

For much of 2021 economic reports from the Eurozone have more consistently beaten estimates compared with their American counterparts. These “surprising” results have contributed to the recent strength of the euro and European stock markets.

However, the Eurozone outperformance may owe more to overly pessimistic estimates than robust economic recovery. The Eurozone remains technically in recession, with the German economy struggling with the effects of a strong euro on their important export sector.

We believe that Eurozone results will cease to “surprise” in the second half of the year which will have important consequences for the euro, the dollar, and capital markets generally.

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