Why The S&P 500 Is Setting Investors Up For Disappointing Returns-And How to Prepare

Jonathan Baird CFA
2 min readJan 23, 2025

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Investors, brace yourselves — the landscape is shifting beneath our feet. It’s a timeless truth: the price you pay today shapes the returns you reap tomorrow. Right now, the signals are impossible to ignore.

Imagine scaling a mountain where the air gets thinner with every step; the higher you go, the harder it becomes to progress. The S&P 500 is perched at similar dizzying heights. According to recent research from Bank of America, these elevated valuations point to a sobering forecast: a mere 1–2% annual return over the next decade. Even if we level the playing field — removing the outsized influence of the “Magnificent 7” tech giants and considering the S&P 500 on an equal-weighted basis — we’re still only looking at projected returns of 4–5%.

Let that sink in. In a world where inflation quietly erodes your purchasing power and market volatility is the new normal, can such modest returns truly help you achieve your financial goals?

The days of set-it-and-forget-it investing are fading. A passive, buy-and-hold strategy might have ridden the waves of past bull markets, but the tide is turning. The coming decade demands more from us as investors. While overall market returns may be uninspiring, the anticipated high volatility presents a silver lining: opportunities for those ready to seize them.

Volatility isn’t just a challenge — it’s an invitation. An invitation to engage more deeply with your investments, to diversify across asset classes, and to employ effective risk management strategies. It’s about being proactive, staying informed, and not settling for the status quo.

Complacency? That’s a luxury we can no longer afford. Instead, let’s embrace adaptability and strategic thinking. By navigating these turbulent waters with intention, we position ourselves not just to weather the storms, but to thrive amidst them.

We’ve been delving deep into these evolving dynamics and sharing actionable insights each month in the Global Investment Letter. If this conversation has sparked something in you, imagine the depth of understanding and strategic guidance you’ll gain from our full analyses.

Don’t stand on the sidelines. Join our community of forward-thinking investors who aren’t just reacting to change but are anticipating it. Subscribe now to receive our exclusive free weekly investment commentary and access free sample issues of the Global Investment Letter. Together, let’s turn today’s challenges into tomorrow’s opportunities.

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Feel the shift? The investment horizon is changing, but with the right approach, you can navigate it successfully. Let’s connect and explore these opportunities together. 🚀

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Jonathan Baird CFA
Jonathan Baird CFA

Written by Jonathan Baird CFA

PUBLISHER OF THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT LETTER. AWARD-WINNING MONEY MANAGER. SPEAKER ON GEOPOLITICS AND MARKETS. www.globalinvestmentletter.com

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