Will Real Interest Rates Rise Again?

Jonathan Baird CFA
1 min readNov 23, 2020

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Global real interest rates have been in decline since the 14th century when they reached a peak because of the bubonic plague. Rates reached negative values in the 20th century due to post-war bouts of extreme inflation in many nations.

Current real interest rates rest at near-unprecedented peacetime levels due to central bank intervention and the weakness of the global economy. These low rates are producing significant distortions in the global economy and capital markets.

History suggests rates will not remain at current levels indefinitely. We expect rates to return to more traditional levels later this decade as part of a process that will produce considerable volatility.

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Jonathan Baird CFA
Jonathan Baird CFA

Written by Jonathan Baird CFA

PUBLISHER OF THE GLOBAL INVESTMENT LETTER. AWARD-WINNING MONEY MANAGER. SPEAKER ON GEOPOLITICS AND MARKETS. www.globalinvestmentletter.com

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